2026 Automaker Predictions & Wildcard Scenarios: Tiptoeing to Higher Prices
In October 2025, the average new car transaction price officially surpassed $50,000 for the first time. This milestone has been creeping up on the market for years following the rapid price increases of 2022 and 2023, and it arrived to little fanfare. The truth is, consumers are growing accustomed to annual price hikes. But it doesn’t have to be this way. Will manufacturers finally acknowledge the need for affordable options, or will prices continue their relentless climb? To get answers, we spoke to three industry experts to understand where the car market is headed in 2026.
According to a recent report from Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the U.S. crossed the $50,000 threshold in September 2025. New-vehicle prices have risen steadily for more than a year, with the pace of increases accelerating in recent months. September’s annual gain of 3.6% marked the largest year-over-year increase since the spring of 2023.
It’s troubling to see that consumers aren’t pushing back against higher prices – at least not enough to stop the upward trend. Car buyers have more tools than ever before, from AI-powered negotiation to full-service car buying concierges, yet many still pay sticker price or close to it. The reality is that having a car is often a necessity in the U.S. Where public transportation is lacking and job opportunities are spread out, many Americans have no choice but to buy a car when they need one, regardless of where prices happen to be at the time.
Even the used car market offers little relief, with prices still running about 20% higher than they were just five years ago.
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Automakers Get Creative With Price Hikes
MSRPs aren’t the only numbers trending higher for the 2026 model year. Some OEMs, most notably General Motors, are raising mandatory destination charges by hundreds of dollars, often on top of MSRP increases. It’s a clever way to sneak additional costs onto the Monroney Label without technically raising the base price. But it’s not just GM. Destination charges for the Ford F-150 are now $2,595, a 25% increase from the 2024 model year. Most other full-size trucks are around $2,000 for delivery. This fee isn’t negotiable, but most other fees are.
Unfortunately, many shoppers will never notice the difference until they’re signing papers at the dealership.
These Automakers Are Raising Prices the Most for 2026
As of October 2025, here are the manufacturers with the most noteworthy price hikes announced for the 2026 model year:
- Subaru — The biggest single jump we’ve seen: the 2026 Subaru Outback now starts at $36,445, up $5,030 compared to 2025. Subaru achieved this by dropping the previous base trim entirely, effectively raising the entry price by roughly $5,000 overnight.
- Volkswagen — Multiple models moved up across the board. The 2026 Jetta sees increases up to 4.7% on certain trims (the SE jumps from $25,775 to $26,985, a $1,210 hike), and the 2026 Taos base climbs by $1,055. Several Atlas and Atlas Cross Sport trims are also more expensive.
- Hyundai (ICE SUVs) — The redesigned 2026 Palisade base SE rises $1,735 to $40,430, roughly a 4.7% bump. Meanwhile, Hyundai is cutting prices on the Hyundai IONIQ 5 by up to $8,500.
- BMW — The luxury brand implemented a broad MSRP increase of about 2% across many 2026 models, adding roughly $1,100 to $2,500 to most models.
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The EV Exception: Prices Are Falling
Not all 2026 models are getting more expensive. In fact, electric vehicles are bucking the trend entirely. Following the loss of federal EV incentives for many models, automakers are slashing prices to keep buyers interested. The Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Ford F-150 Lightning are both getting several thousand dollars cheaper for 2026.
Better-equipped budget options are also arriving on the scene, with the revived Chevy Bolt and the all-new Nissan LEAF both available for around $30,000 in 2026. Gone are the slow-charging, limited-range budget EVs of the last decade.
The case for lower EV prices in 2026 leans on a few key factors: increased competition, improved battery production efficiency, and the need to maintain sales momentum without federal tax credits propping up demand. As more electric models flood the market, automakers have no choice but to compete on price if they want to move inventory.
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SUVs and Trucks See Higher Prices
If you’re shopping for an SUV or truck in 2026, prepare for higher prices. These segments are more likely to see increases due to rising material costs, tariff impacts, and strategic trim adjustments. Several 2026 models have already launched with higher entry prices compared to their 2025 counterparts. The exception, once again, is anything electric, which is already seeing falling prices.
One way that truck brands quietly nudge prices ever higher is by leaving base trims largely untouched, since they’re the commonly cited headline number used in advertising. Instead, they hike prices for mid and upper-spec trims, which make up a larger portion of actual sales anyway. The unfortunate truth is that most buyers never notice.
Anything that sells quickly will most certainly not see falling prices. Popular SUVs and models from Toyota and Honda remain in high demand, giving these brands little incentive to negotiate or offer meaningful discounts. If a vehicle is flying off the lot, you can bet the price isn’t coming down.
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New Car Forecast: Prices Will Rise 2-4% in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the market dynamics point toward continued price growth, albeit at a slower pace than the chaotic years of 2022 and 2023. CarEdge predicts that new car prices will rise 2-4% overall in 2026, with significant variation depending on the type of vehicle you’re shopping for.
Here’s how we see the market breaking down:
- Popular SUVs and trucks: Expect increases of 3-5%, especially for high-demand models from Toyota, Honda, and domestic brands. These vehicles will continue to command premium pricing as long as inventory remains tight and consumer demand stays strong.
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Sedans and mainstream crossovers: More moderate increases in the 2-3% range. These segments face more competition and less pricing power, which should keep increases relatively modest.
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Electric vehicles: Prices will fall 3-8% as automakers fight for market share and compensate for the loss of federal incentives on many models. If you’ve been waiting to go electric, 2026 could be your year. Be sure to shop EV lease deals to avoid the depreciation hit when you buy.
- Luxury vehicles: Expect 2-3% increases across the board, with premium brands continuing to test the upper limits of what affluent buyers will pay.
The wild card in all of this is incentives. While MSRPs are rising, automakers may offset some of the pain with bigger cash offers, low-APR financing deals, and lease specials, especially on models that aren’t moving as quickly as expected.
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Wildcard Scenarios In 2026
Predictions are always tough, especially when it comes to the auto market. The forecasts above assume a relatively stable economy, continued falling interest rates, and no major supply chain disruptions. Of course, wildcard scenarios could dramatically alter the trajectory of the car market in 2026. It wouldn’t be the first time. Here are some of the factors we’re watching closely:
- Tariffs on imported vehicles and parts — Any new or expanded tariffs on vehicles or components from Mexico, Canada, China, or other trading partners could drive prices significantly higher. Automakers with heavy manufacturing footprints outside the U.S. would be hit hardest, and those costs would almost certainly be passed on to consumers.
- Economic recession — If the broader economy weakens and unemployment rises, car sales could crater. In that scenario, automakers would be forced to slash prices and ramp up incentives to keep inventory moving. This would be good news for buyers, but would require careful timing.
- Supply chain disruptions — Any major disruption to the supply of semiconductors, batteries, or raw materials could limit production and drive prices higher. The auto industry is still more vulnerable to supply shocks than it was before the pandemic.
- Labor strikes — Work stoppages at major automakers or suppliers could reduce inventory and create short-term price spikes for certain models. This happened big time in 2023.
- Inflation — If inflation remains stubbornly high, automakers will continue to use it as justification for price increases. At the same time, persistent inflation could finally push consumers to the breaking point, reducing demand.
- Geopolitical instability — Conflicts around the globe can impact energy prices, supply chains, and consumer confidence, all of which ripple through to car prices.
Any combination of these factors could push prices higher or lower than our baseline forecast. The key is to stay informed and be ready to act when the right opportunity presents itself.
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How Car Shoppers Can Stay In Control
With prices trending higher, staying in control of your car deal has never been more important. The good news is that you don’t have to navigate the car market alone.
- Know the real cost before you step into the dealership. Use online calculators to get the invoice prices, compare current incentives, and see what others are paying in your area. The more information you have, the stronger your negotiating position.
- Time your purchase strategically. End of month, end of quarter, and end of model year are still the best times to buy. Dealers have quotas to hit, and that pressure can work in your favor.
- Get pre-approved for financing. Never rely solely on dealer financing. Having a pre-approved loan from a bank or credit union gives you leverage and ensures you’re not overpaying on the interest rate.
- Consider alternatives to buying new. If 2026 prices are too high, a certified pre-owned vehicle or a lightly used car from 2024 or 2025 could offer better value. You’ll avoid the worst of the depreciation and still get a relatively modern vehicle.
The key is to stay informed, stay patient, and refuse to overpay. The market may be tilted in favor of automakers right now, but armed with the right information and tools, you can still win.
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Zach Shefska is CEO of CarEdge, a leading platform—founded by father-and-son team Ray and Zach Shefska—dedicated to empowering car shoppers with free expert advice, in-depth market insights and tools to navigate every step of the car-buying journey. From researching vehicles to negotiating deals, CarEdge helps consumers save money, time and hassle. Alsop with trusted resources like the CarEdge Research Center, Vehicle Rankings and Reviews, and hundreds of guides on YouTube, CarEdge is redefining transparency and fairness in the automotive industry. Connect with Shefska at www.CarEdge.com or on social media on YouTube, TikTok, X, Facebook, and Instagram.
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